Russia’s invasion of Georgia may have stopped expanding (20 miles from Tbilisi), but they’re not going anywhere either. This has really turned into an international disaster for the Russians — who are better known for their heavy-handed tactics than their PR savvy. After 18 months of negotiations and dithering, Poland suddenly decided that the US could station anti-missile missiles in their territory — something the Russians have long opposed. And suddenly, Ukraine has decided that the US could use a Soviet-era satellite base for the missile interceptor program.
The Russians will be FURIOUS. They’re already plotting political revenge for Poland’s acceptance of interceptors and America’s steady (if fairly low-key) support of Georgia. While stationing the Iskander missiles in Syria sounds rather far-fetched (and designed specifically to threaten Israel — possible, really, as Israel has previously supported Georgia at Russia’s expense), arming the Baltic fleet with nuclear weapons and stationing more in its exclave at Kaliningrad seems realistic and a major symbolic step towards the re-establishment of a Cold War mentality. Ukraine is pushing Russia very hard at this point. It would be difficult or even impossible to disallow Russian ships from returning to the naval base at Sevastopol if they were used against Georgia (something that easily remains in the realm of plausibility), but the international humiliation of being opposed by a close neighbor with so much shared history would do bad things to the paranoid Russian national psyche.
Are we seeing the run-up to a new Cold War? I doubt it will come to that, at least not for a long time. Washington is keeping the rhetoric running at a steady heat (Bush has insisted on the maintenance of Georgian control of both South Ossetia and Abkhazia), but is pushing behind the scenes to find a middle way (including forcing Saakashvili to accept the loss of control over South Ossetia and Abkhazia). Bush is smart enough to know that Russia has to be allowed to get out of the situation while saving face. Let’s just hope that the Russians are smart enough to take the concessions and run with them.