There are interesting poll results coming out lately on the upcoming congressional elections — this one trumpets that Democrats are up in the generic party-based polls by 11 percent, although it also tells us that “more than 19 percent of voters” haven’t made up their minds yet about who to vote for. These are some really fuzzy results — there doesn’t seem to be any indication whether these are registered voters or likely voters, and the article doesn’t provide the detailed information that one would need to thoroughly analyze the results. I put less and less faith in nationwide polling like this every time I read one of these articles.
The big thing to remember about this election is that all politics are local. Unlike a parliamentary system (like Great Britain), we’re not voting for a party; we’re voting for a person. While many people may distrust Republicans in general, that doesn’t mean that they distrust THEIR Republican candidate. Disapproval of how Congress is doing in general also might not deter people from voting the incumbent back in.
There are also indications that the gains the Democrats are making may not be exactly to the liking of the Daily Kos/Howard Dean faction of the Democratic party. Many of the Democrats that are up for election this time are more conservative. Being that this is the LA Times, I’m not putting too much confidence in their definition of the word ‘conservative,’ but it at least seems to be the case with Casey’s campaign in Pennsylvania. I would have no problem voting for Casey on election day, but I’ll probably vote for Santorum because he already has a strong standing in the Republican party in the Senate. I think he and Casey would do many of the same things in the Senate, but the fact that Casey would be a freshman senator means that his support of those things wouldn’t be as important in getting things done.
On the whole, Republicans ‘in the know’ are still optimistic. I refer you particularly to number four on their list and my prediction (made on October 16) that the last few days before the election would hold some Republican suprises. As far as I know, the Saddam verdict is still expected right before the election, and (as in number 5 on the list) the President may use the Bully Pulpit after Saddam’s trial to point to it as a success in Iraq. If Bush were planning on proposing a new initiative in Iraq, that would be the time. I haven’t read much about the US sweeps through Baghdad recently, but I suspect that the recent tough fighting in Sadr City indicates that it isn’t going quite as well as was hoped. However, the sweeps are surely helping to cut down on the available weapons in circulation among Sadr’s army and other insurgents.
On the whole, though, it’s time to start looking at the betting odds for the election. At this point, odds seem to point to the Republicans holding the Senate but losing the House. To look at more exact odds (with graphs!) have a look at the odds on the Iowa Electronic Markets. (There is a lot of interesting stuff at their site — I suggest you have a look at it.)
I’m not making my final predictions yet, but right now I would say that the Republicans will hold the Senate, and the House will be close to the 50-50 mark.
UPDATE 10/29/06 12.33 PM: Fixed the broken link to the odds at the IEM.