podpolia

The political opposition in Ukraine has broken off talks with the government after parliament failed to pass a ‘no confidence’ vote. Yushchenko and his supporters have been pushing Yanukovich’s cabinet (Yanukovich is currently Prime Minister, but is running for President) to squash talk of sucession from eastern provinces. Meanwhile, this and other news has started a rush on banks in Donetsk (one of the eastern provinces threatening to break away).
In a broader view, Russia is making noises like they think the election in Ukraine is just the west trying to steal the election — despite Putin’s own interference in the election. There have even been widespread rumors of Russian special forces in Kiev, but as far as I know those are still unconfirmed.
Further information here from ‘Le Sabot Post-Moderne’ — one of the better bloggers out on the streets of Kiev.
Update: Forgot to put this in here. Romania seems to be doing almost the same thing as Ukraine — let’s hope that the run-off elections don’t happen like Ukraine’s did…

Pat Sajak on the murder of Theo van Gogh. The comment about Michael Moore is just great, but he also gets closer to what seems to be the reason for the silence in the ‘artistic’ community about it.

Yet another post about Ukraine. Possibility of new elections?

The situation in Ukraine is quite a fascinating affair. A country that was part of the Soviet Union just 13 years ago is undergoing massive peaceful demonstrations protesting the results of elections — and incredibly important elections at that. These elections will more or less decide which direction the country goes over the next few years — to the west and the EU, or to the east and Russia. Putin has been involved heavily in these elections, campaigning for the government’s candidate. This was not well received by certain people, who see it as a continuation of Russian (particularly Muscovite) domination of their own independent nation. The USSR ruled Ukraine, as did the Tsars. This was not particularly welcomed by many because Kiev was the center of Slavic culture before the invasion of the Tatars. Kievan Rus’ put much of later Muscovite society to shame. Eventually, after Poland had ruled much of the Ukraine (particularly right-bank Ukraine — the western side of the Don river) Russia conquered it. Today, the divisions between the more Orthodox and Slavic eastern half of the nation and the more Catholic and westernized western half of the nation are still at odds. They have to choose a leader from one side or the other, and the elections seem to have been rigged.
The mere fact that the government has not cracked down on the demonstrations shows that they know the weaknesses of their position. Many within the security forces and the military support the opposition, and at the moment are merely standing opposite the crowds. This gives the crowds an excellent opportunity to talk to them to try to win them over, as happened to a greater degree in St. Petersburg during the February revolution of 1917. When there’s a bond with the crowd, the police do not want to crack down, and this naturally favors the demonstrators, even if the police don’t actively switch sides (as happened in the aforementioned case.)
Luckily for both sides, there is a way out without needing to resort to violence. The results of the election have not (and may not be) certified yet by the board of elections. Members of the board know that the elections were quite suspect and the results may well be fraudulent, and they have until December 6 to come to a decision on what to do. In the mean time, the government will try to keep the pressure on them, the protesters will try to keep the pressure on the government, and Russia and the west will try to appear like they’re staying out of it while secretly hoping that things go their way.
We shall see.

Well, they certified the election results. This will make it more difficult to resolve Ukraine’s electoral turmoil, although Yushchenko has suggested new elections. He has also stated that it was not the fault of his supporters or Yanukovich’s, but that the government had rigged the elections. He also declared he would “…not [accept] falsified elections”, so the announcement of results since his speech means the opposition will not back down. Yanukovich indicated that he would be willing to bow to the decision of the election commission even if it went against him, saying “I need no fictitious victory, a result which could lead to violence and victims. No position of authority, no matter how important, is worth a single human life.” Hopefully he will be willing to allow the results to be questioned now that they have been certified.
It still remains to be seen how this will be worked out. Tensions do seem to be rising over the issue between the US and Russia, but the majority of the action is simply going to play out in Ukraine. The protesters are still relating to the police, so hopefully there will be no violence.
The most telling quotes from this whole thing are, to me, the statement by current President Kuchma that the demonstrations are a “political farce” and the lines from Yanukovich: “Today there are no grounds for people coming out on the streets. We (ordinary people) have all we need to be able to live normally. Nothing extraordinary is taking place.” Both of these seem to indicate the unwillingness of the government party to accept that there is a legitimate problem with the elections. Kuchma’s statement in particular makes it seem that he is unwilling to accept democracy as the rule of the people over the government instead of the government over the people. Hopefully, Yanukovich does not think that way, but I’m not making any bets.

In other news, North Korea seems to be reaffirming its position in the ‘Axis of Evil.’ In particular, read the last paragraph on the South Korean political party that prefers economic relations to North Korea to condemnation of North Korea murdering their own citizens. Internationalism run amok.

Dr. Snow cleared up for me something I was curious about: is it “Ukraine” or is it “the Ukraine”? The latter is certainly easier to say, but he informed me that the former is correct.
I have gone through and revised each of the entries on Ukraine to correct for that, so if the dates don’t seem to match up, that’s why (I haven’t figured out a way to leave the date the same while editing the content of the post).

Somehow, I think this threat is more likely than a similar one aired recently in US. My first instinct is, “hey, if they want to live under a corrupt semi-autocratic government, let them.” Then again, that section of Ukraine would take with it (according to Goode’s World Atlas, 20th Edition) Ukraine’s half of the largest coal deposit in Europe and likely a little over half of Ukraine’s industrial regions (and possibly a large patch of lignite deposits and some ‘minor’ petroleum deposits.) This would be a major loss to the western portion of Ukraine, and a major coup for Russia even though they are unlikely to be able to convince the eastern half to join them as a province (they have different languages).
Essentially, Poland and Russia are each pulling in opposite directions, and there’s a very real possibility Ukraine will split in half.

This is absolutely brilliant.
I wonder how high Wal-Mart ranks as a military power? Do zey ‘ave ze atom bom as vell?

Ukraine’s state-owned media have revolted as well. Here and here for further information.